Wednesday, November 28, 2012

A Prophecy for Gaza

I hereby predict that before New Year's day, probably at the beginning of Hannukah, the Palestinians in Gaza will break the cease-fire, blame it on Israel, and start lobbing rockets again.  Anybody want to take my bet?

Why do I think so?  Well, for one thing, the Palestinians have broken every other treaty, cease-fire, agreement, etc. that they've ever had with Israel.  For another, if you Google-search a group called MEMRI, you'll find a remarkable number of videos showing various Palestinian pundits howling about how they love death the way Westerners love life, brainwashing little children to become suicide bombers, and promising each other that after they destroy Israel they'll kill all the Jews, Christians, Buddhists, Hindus, Secularists, and Moslems who aren't as religiously pure as themselves, and they'll rule the world in the name of their vision of Allah.  These people love their hate, more than their children or life itself.  They're addicted to it, and won't be able to leave it alone for long.

The only reason they agreed to the cease-fire in the first place was to give them time to stock up on more ammunition to use against Israel, probably through all those smugglers' tunnels they've dug all around the Gaza border.  It doesn't help that Iran, which is supplying the weapons, is using Gaza for a stalking-horse and happily egging on the Palestinians, promising them that they can actually beat Israel.

Of course Israel is quite aware of this, and is making its own plans for what to do when the Palestinians break the cease-fire.  It would be sensible to legally declare war on Gaza -- which is, after all, supposed to be an independent Palestinian country -- then use the ground troops only to guard the border and stop anyone coming up out of those tunnels, and use their air force to carpet-bomb Gaza, moving from the east border westward, slowly enough that the population has time to run.

The Palestinian refugees will, of course, run west to Egypt, thinking they'll stir up the Egyptians to help them make war on Israel.  Now it's obvious that, despite the inflated standing of the Moslem Brotherhood there, Egypt is thoroughly mired in troubles of its own.  Egypt adamantly does not want a half-million Palestinians running around loose, howling jihad-jihad on every street-corner, demanding to be supported in the style they became accustomed to in Gaza, threatening to become a serious political faction.  Older and wiser heads in Egypt can remember the first wave of Palestinian Refugees, back in 1948, and what a pain in the butt they turned out to be.  Egypt's solution then was to cram the Palestinians into tightly walled-off refugee camps, and use them -- for generations after -- as cannon-fodder, every time Egypt decided to go to war with Israel.  Eventually, after several sharp defeats, Egypt wised up about attacking Israel -- and found ways to filter the Palestinians back into Israel, to make trouble there.  Egypt absolutely does not want the Palestinians back again;  having a bunch of them inside its borders will give it a serious headache.

As for Iran, if Israel's remarkable "Iron Dome" anti-missile system doesn't wise up Achmedinejihad's government, observing Israel turn Gaza into nothing but rubble and plowed ground should do it.  If Iran's government is crazy enough to make war on Israel, on the excuse, of course, of "avenging" the poor-poor Palestinians,  they'll get their @sses handed to them.

And if Iran actually has managed to produce -- or buy -- a working nuke, and tries to use it on Israel, they just might learn -- the hard way -- the best-kept secret in the middle-east.

Israel already has nukes.  Has had them for years, saving them for just such an occasion.

When it gets to that point, the Arab governments will divide up handily: the jihadist idiots will pull their heads in like turtles and console themselves with hopes of another chance someday.  The sensible governments -- like those of Jordan and Oman -- will actively denounce Iran, the Palestinians, and the jihadists in general.

If the US government has any sense, it will join them.  Our surest, solidest ally in the middle-east -- despite the shabby way we've treated it -- has always been Israel.

--Leslie <;)))><  )O(    



Elder Dragon said...

The "Iron Dome" is all hype. The Israelis will run out of those high tech toys well before the low tech Palestine mob. Their low tech is a small artillery shell mated to a school boy rocket. Those can be made in a small shop and fired the same afternoon.
Soon enough the hawks here in the US will get in on the fun. Then its time for TEOTWAYKI. If the US goes after Iran, If Israel goes after Iran, or any other state in the region, Baddaboom! welcome to the stone age. They better get a move on it though, Mom nature is about to steal the show. A funny fact I just realized the other day after reading up on Solar max will really happen on Dec 21, 12..If November 30's CME-driven shock at the Earth doesn't shake some ground first. The first half of 2013 isn't looking to good.

Antongarou said...

Leslie, what you describe here won't happen that time, and hopefully never will. Because on that day the monsters win, even if all of them lie dead in the ruins of their defeat, for they would have remade us in their image. We are human, and would stay thus- do not remake us into the monsters our enemies would have us be.

Leslie Fish said...

Of course everyone would like the Palestinians to grow up and show some common sense, but how likely is that? We all know that the moment the world's attention is aimed elsewhere, the Palestinians will go right back to throwing rockets and bombs at Israel. What is Israel supposed to do, let them keep falling? And what's the alternative?

I've never fallen for the accusation that defending yourself against violence somehow makes you as evil as the attackers. Do you recall the old STAR TREK episode where an alien set the Enterprise crew against re-creations of famous villains, and then complained that the Good Guys used the same tactics as the Bad Guys? Captain Kirk answered: "The difference is in what it took to make us fight." Unwillingness to fight and kill at all doesn't make you virtuous; it makes you a victim.

--Leslie <;)))>< Fish

Paradoctor said...

Majorities in Israel, in the W. Bank and even in Gaza want peace; but the loudmouths rule. The loudmouths do not rule by reason; they are ruled by PTSD. Worse still, it's SPTSD; self-perpetuating traumatic stress disorder.

It's true that the Palestinians have a bad record of keeping to agreements; alas, so do the Israelis. I am gravely disappointed in both sets of ruling loudmouths.

I give up. It will end badly.

Antongarou said...

Leslie, what you propose is not defending ourselves, which I support, but becoming monsters - destroying the lives of about 1M people, probably killing a lot of them in the process. We will not do that, because it means bombing women and children indiscriminately, bombing helpless invalids who cannot move fast enough... we will not create that kind of hell on earth. Because we are not monsters, we people, and we refuse to lower ourselves to that level.

Note please that yes, I do consider the bombing of Dresden, for example, to be monstrous.And that yes, I supported operation Pillar of Cloud(aka Pillar of Defense) for all my distaste for Bibi and Barak, and my suspicion of the timing.

Paradoctor - a friend of mine once said that we Israeli have national PTSD, which is somewhat accurate. IIRC the statistics are that 1 in 3 Israelis is suffering from PTSD and 4 in 5 have "some symptoms"

Leslie Fish said...

It's true that the Palestinians like to armor their fighters among the bodies of women, children, old folks, invalids, etc., so carpet-bombing -- no matter how much time and warning you give them -- will inevitably kill some innocents. But what's the alternative?

Commit ground-troops, and you'll lose a lot of them -- along with those same innocent civilians -- to explosive booby-traps. You'll also miss a lot of the guilty, who'll lie low until the wave-front of war has passed them by before jumping up and shooting rockets again. You'll also leave the smuggling tunnels intact. More to the point, you won't drive the Palestinians into Egypt, so the Egyptians will still sympathize with them. And Iran won't be scared off.

Giving Gaza 24 hours' warning, and then bombing, would at least give the civilians time to run.

Yes, innocent people get killed in war. That's one of the things that make war something to be avoided if at all possible.

--Leslie <;)))>< )O(