Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Countering the Lies of the Desperate


Since last week, several more sheriffs have appealed to the citizens to carry weapons in public and be prepared to use them against terrorist attacks.  Likewise, more media pundits have published calls to abolish the 2nd Amendment, using some amazingly questionable claims and statistics.  If the supposed intelligentsia are willing to manipulate figures and lie outright in support of their cherished cause, it's becoming obvious that the only statistics we can trust are those from the FBI, the Department of Justice, the Center for Disease Control, and the World Health Organization -- whose archives are public records.   These are necessary for countering the attempted Big Lie blizzard of false claims, such as the following.

1)  Claim: "The US has the highest number of gun-deaths in the world."
     Fact:  No, this is a lie.  Syria does -- closely followed by Iraq.  The anti-gun crowd will no doubt claim That's Different, because Syria is in the middle of a civil war, and Iraq in the middle of an invasion and conquest.  But in that case they'll have to make exception for Mexico, which has had a smoldering 3-way war -- between the government, the Indians, and the drug cartels -- going on for the last 6 years.  (WHO figures.) 

2) Claim: "There were over 300 mass-shootings in the US this year alone."
     Fact: This is a half-lie.  The FBI defines "mass shooting" as an incident in which at least 4 people are shot -- but not necessarily killed.  The CDC notes that better than 90% of all gunshot victims survive, over 85% of them with no permanent debilitating damage. In 42% of the 353 mass shootings recorded in 2015 so far, there were no reported fatalities. An additional 47% of those mass shootings resulted in between one and three people killed.  (FBI figures.)



3) Claim: "The US is the most violent country in the world."
    Fact:  This is a lie.  There are 106 nations in the world which have higher homicide rates than the US. (WHO figures.)  All of them have stricter gun-control laws, if not outright bans, than the US.
   The anti-gun crowd will then quibble that these aren't "modern industrial democracies" -- though they include Russia, Mexico, South Africa, Greenland and Argentina  -- or have only "negligible populations".  Since the US has the 3rd highest population in the world (317 million, behind China and India, but ahead of everyone else -- WHO figures), "negligible" is a very subjective term.   

4)  Claim: "Gun control works.  Australia got rid of all its civilian-owned guns."
      Fact:  This is a half-lie.  If the purpose of gun control or gun confiscation is to reduce crime, then it hasn't really worked in Australia -- where (WHO figures) the violent-crime rate has not dropped since the gun confiscation.  It certainly hasn't worked in Canada or Britain, where the violent-crime rate has steadily climbed since the gun confiscations there.

5)  Claim: "Gun control works.  Japan has no civilian-owned guns.)
     Fact:  This is a half-lie.  If the purpose of gun-control is to reduce civilian violent deaths, then it hasn't really worked in Japan -- where (WHO figures) the preferred weapon is a blade, and the suicide-rate is higher than the American murder-rate (FBI figures).

6) Claim: "Civilians with guns can't possible prevent violent crime."
     Fact:  This is a lie.  On average, every year (FBI figures) at least 900,000 Americans use firearms to prevent crime.  According to the CDC the figure is closer to 3 million, since most such cases end with the would-be crook running away without a shot fired and the case is not reported.

7)  Claim: "Violent crime in America is increasing."
      Fact:  This is a lie.  According to the FBI, violent crime in America has been decreasing steadily since 1993.  In particular, the number of gun-homicides has dropped by half.  In 2014, 2/3rds of all gun fatalities in the US were suicides (approx. 20,000).  

For anyone who wants to research the details on these claims, I'd recommend starting here:


“In every mass killing—every one of them—when someone with a gun arrives determined to stop the killing, it stops; the killer flees or is disabled or is killed or dies by suicide.”

            Andrew Napolitano | December 10, 2015

"--  https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement

Overview

  • In 2014, an estimated 1,165,383 violent crimes occurred nationwide, a decrease of 0.2 percent from the 2013 estimate. (See Table 1/1A)
  • When considering 5- and 10-year trends, the 2014 estimated violent crime total was 6.9 percent below the 2010 level and 16.2 percent below the 2005 level. (See Table 1/1A)
  • There were an estimated 365.5 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants in 2014, a rate that declined 1.0 percent when compared with the 2013 estimated violent crime rate. (See Table 1/1A)
  • Aggravated assaults accounted for 63.6 percent of violent crimes reported to law enforcement in 2014. Robbery offenses accounted for 28.0 percent of violent crime offenses; rape (legacy definition) accounted for 7.2 percent; and murder accounted for 1.2 percent. (Based on Table 1/1A)
  • Information collected regarding types of weapons used in violent crime showed that firearms were used in 67.9 percent of the nation’s murders, 40.3 percent of robberies, and 22.5 percent of aggravated assaults. (Weapons data are not collected for rape.) (See Expanded Homicide Data Table 7, Robbery Table 3, and the Aggravated Assault Table)

Murder --  https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/murder

Download Printable Document
The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program defines murder and nonnegligent manslaughter as the willful (nonnegligent) killing of one human being by another. The classification of this offense is based solely on police investigation as opposed to the determination of a court, medical examiner, coroner, jury, or other judicial body. The UCR Program does not include the following situations in this offense classification: deaths caused by negligence, suicide, or accident; justifiable homicides; and attempts to murder or assaults to murder, which are classified as aggravated assaults.

Data collection

Supplementary Homicide Data—The UCR Program’s supplementary homicide data provide information regarding the age, sex, and race of the murder victim and the offender; the type of weapon used; the relationship of the victim to the offender; and the circumstance surrounding the incident. Law enforcement agencies are asked—but not required—to provide complete supplementary homicide data for each murder they report to the UCR Program. Information gleaned from these supplementary homicide data can be viewed in the Expanded Homicide Data section.
Justifiable homicide—Certain willful killings must be reported as justifiable or excusable. In the UCR Program, justifiable homicide is defined as and limited to:
  • The killing of a felon by a peace officer in the line of duty.
  • The killing of a felon, during the commission of a felony, by a private citizen.
Because these killings are determined through law enforcement investigation to be justifiable, they are tabulated separately from murder and nonnegligent manslaughter. More information about justifiable homicide is furnished in the Expanded Homicide Data section and in Expanded Homicide Data Table 14, “Justifiable Homicide by Weapon, Law Enforcement, 2010–2014,” and Expanded Homicide Data Table 15, “Justifiable Homicide by Weapon, Private Citizen, 2010–2014.”

Overview

  • In 2014, the estimated number of murders in the nation was 14,249. This was a 0.5 percent decrease from the 2013 estimate, a 3.2 percent decrease from the 2010 figure, and a 14.9 percent drop from the number in 2005.
  • There were 4.5 murders per 100,000 people. The murder rate fell 1.2 percent in 2014 compared with the 2013 rate. The murder rate was down from the rates in 2010 (6.1 percent) and 2005 (20.8 percent). (See Table 1/1A)
  • Of the estimated number of murders in the United States, 46.0 percent were reported in the South, 20.5 percent were reported in the Midwest, 20.5 percent were reported in the West, and 13.1 percent were reported in the Northeast. (See Table 3)

Expanded data

UCR expanded offense data are details of the various offenses that the UCR Program collects beyond the count of how many crimes law enforcement agencies report. These details may include the type of weapon used in a crime, type or value of items stolen, and so forth. In addition, expanded data include trends (for example, 2-year comparisons) and rates per 100,000 inhabitants.
Expanded information regarding murder is available in the following tables:
  • Trends (2-year): Tables 12, 13, and 14
  • Rates (per 100,000 inhabitants): Tables 16, 17, and 18
Expanded Homicide Data (supplementary homicide information):
  • Victim data: Expanded Homicide Data Tables 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, and 13
  • Offender data: Expanded Homicide Data Tables 3, 5, and 6
  • Circumstance data: Expanded Homicide Data Tables 10, 11, 12, and 13

Expanded Homicide Data -- https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide    

Expanded Homicide Data

Download Printable Document

Data collection

The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program collects supplementary homicide data that provide the age, sex, and race of the murder victim and offender; the type of weapon used; the relationship of the victim to the offender; and the circumstance surrounding the incident. Statistics gleaned from these supplemental data are provided in this section.
This section also includes information about justifiable homicide—certain willful killings that must be reported as justifiable or excusable. In the UCR Program, justifiable homicide is defined as and limited to:
  • The killing of a felon by a peace officer in the line of duty.
  • The killing of a felon, during the commission of a felony, by a private citizen.
Because these killings are determined through law enforcement investigation to be justifiable, they are tabulated separately from murder and nonnegligent manslaughter. Justifiable homicide information can be found in Expanded Homicide Data Table 14, “Justifiable Homicide, by Weapon, Law Enforcement, 2010–2014” and Expanded Homicide Data Table 15, “Justifiable Homicide, by Weapon, Private Citizen, 2010–2014.”

Overview

  • In 2014, most (77.3 percent) of the 11,961 murder victims for whom supplemental data were received were male. (Based on Expanded Homicide Data Table 1)
  • Of the murder victims for whom race was known, 51.6 percent were black, 45.7 percent were white, and 2.6 percent were of other races. Race was unknown for 160 victims. (Based on Expanded Homicide Data Table 2)
  • Nearly 48 percent (47.7) of all murders for which the UCR Program received supplemental data were single victim/single offender situations. (See Expanded Homicide Data Table 4)
  • When the race of the offender was known, 53.0 percent were black, 44.7 percent were white, and 2.3 percent were of other races. The race was unknown for 4,132 offenders. (Based on Expanded Homicide Data Table 3)
  • Nearly 68 percent (67.9) of the homicides for which the FBI received weapons data in 2014 involved the use of firearms. Handguns comprised 68.5 percent of the firearms used in murder and nonnegligent manslaughter incidents in 2014. (Based on Expanded Homicide Data Table 8)
  • In 2014, nearly 29 percent (28.7) of homicide victims were killed by someone they knew other than family members (acquaintance, neighbor, friend, boyfriend, etc.), 14.3 percent were slain by family members, and 11.5 percent were killed by strangers. The relationship between murder victims and offenders was unknown in 45.5 percent of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter incidents. (Based on Expanded Homicide Data Table 10)
  • Of the female murder victims for whom the relationships to their offenders were known, 35.5 percent were murdered by their husbands or boyfriends. (Based on Expanded Homicide Data Tables 2 and 10)
  • Of the murders for which the circumstances surrounding the crimes were known, 40.4 percent of victims were murdered during arguments (including romantic triangles) in 2014. Felony circumstances (rape, robbery, burglary, etc.) accounted for 24.0 percent of murders. Circumstances were unknown for 37.7 percent of reported homicides. (Based on Expanded Homicide Data Table 11)
  • Law enforcement reported 721 justifiable homicides in 2014. Of those, law enforcement officers justifiably killed 444 felons, and private citizens justifiably killed 277 people during the commission of crimes. (See Expanded Homicide Data Tables 14 and 15)"


 Happy researching.

--Leslie <;)))>< 
   
 

6 comments:

Aya Katz said...

Thanks for the information. I will be sharing this.

Martin Kloess said...

Nice, thank you.

Michael Murray said...

I'm new to your work, but definitely a kindred spirit. I've been fighting the anti-self defense battle for a long time and just as with non-aggression,voluntarism,and most libertarian beliefs, people just don't get it. I thoroughly enjoy your website and your music, and now your blog posts.

Leslie Fish said...

Thanks, you guys. Yes, please take this information and run with it. It was hard to dig up, especially for a Toddler on the Information Highway like me, but I hope you guys or others will dig further and deeper. Particularly, we need to dig up the FBI's stats reporting that Americans use firearms to prevent crime at least 900,000 times a year. We also need to dig up the CDC's estimate that the real figure is at least twice that high. We also need to get the WHO's stats on comparative homicide rates of different countries. In every case, team, also provide the exact URL where you got the info.

I'm wondering why these govt. agencies, whose info is supposed to be a matter of public record, make it hard to dig up the data. The only answer I can come up with is that the stark figures are *embarrassing* to those who think that "civilized" nations ban civilian firearms and have only negligible crime.

Nikkis Mom said...

Wow, excellent information, Leslie! It's obvious that you spent a lot of time researching this data. Thank you! I've tried to just do Google searches for this type of data before and was unable to find such statistics. But I don't think they make it hard on purpose. Having been a former government employee myself and seeing the general mindset of the 'lifers', I think it's due to several reasons:
1. They're lazy about sharing the information on the 'net' and from their perspective, "hey, we put it on the internet, we're done!".
2. A lot of them don't have the knowledge (or imagination) of what it takes to make something easily searchable (adding the hot key words for which the average Joe would search), for example.
I was linked here through Aya Katz's facebook page...just in case you're wondering. I'm sharing this!

Leslie Fish said...

Hi, Nik's Mom! Yes, please do share the data. In fact, if any of you guys can help me dig further -- I'm looking for the FBI's figures on civilian use of firearms to prevent crime, and also for the CDC's figures on the same as well as the CDC stats on survivability of gunshot wounds. Wanta help me dig?