Saturday, April 1, 2017

Ooh, Please Don't Throw Me In That Briar-Patch!


Since Rasty loves to listen to MSNBC, I've been obliged to spend much of the day listening to the bellwethers of the Liberal Media gloating over bits of rumors about possible transgressions of Trump and the Russians (and yes, they do make it sound like the name of a disreputable rock-band).  Oooh, Trump concealed this, one of his staff avoided mentioning that, and Flynn's Asking For Immunity before he'll testify to one of the half-dozen or so Investigative Committees.  You can almost see them drooling, over really no evidence, so sure that when they finally dig up the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth they'll be able to throw Trump out of office and put Hillary in.

*Sigh*  You'd think they'd know better.  For one thing, throw out Trump and what you'll get -- Constitutional law is quite clear about this -- is Mike Pence.  Are you sure you want that, Rachel Maddow?  For another, there's no solid evidence there -- just hints, innuendo, and a bunch of amateurs' procedural mistakes -- like Nunez going straight to the White House to tell Trump & Co. that yes, there is evidence that somebody really did some "electronic surveillance" inside Trump Tower sometime.  

Now I'm sure that Obama never really called anybody from the FBI and told them "Go tap Trump's phones"; no, nothing so direct.  But consider that historically the FBI has supported Democrat administrations (while the CIA has supported Republican ones), that there are plenty of federal, state, county and even municipal police departments with the capacity and legal permission to use "electronic surveillance" and the willingness to earn brownie points with the FBI.  Also, in their eagerness to lambast Trump, various of these agencies have admitted that they were following "some of Trump's people" around, looking for a "Russian connection";  nothing would be easier than to walk somebody into the building wearing a wire.

For that matter, it wouldn't be necessary to walk anyone inside at all.  'Way back when I was a student war-protester and Hippie activist (never mind how many years ago that was!) the local police Red Squad spied on our apartment simply by parking an unmarked car out front and aiming a shotgun-microphone at our front room window;  even in those days, they had microphones sensitive enough to pick up the vibrations of voices bouncing off window-glass.  We had to conduct political business and grass-buys in writing while singing along with the radio.  I leave it to your imagination how spy technology has advanced since then.  Yes, I'm sure that somebody spied on Trump Tower.  Just what they heard is another story.

Remember, whatever else Trump is (con-man, sloppy speaker, jockish horn-dog, and plenty more), he's not a fool.  However close he skirts to the edge of the law, he's managed -- in all these years as a somewhat-shady businessman -- never to go provably over that edge, at least not far enough to ever get slapped with more than a bearable fine.  Recall that the forensic bookkeepers who went over the books for his foundation were impressed at how every penny was accounted for, every time and date of every activity meticulously recorded, and verified.  Also recall that he grew up during the days of the Cold War, and purely as a businessman he would have known about the dangers of dealing with the Russians.

Never mind where I picked up this information;  let's just say that as a political activist, a Wobbly, and a filksinger, I've talked to a lot of interesting people, in interesting places, under interesting conditions.  Also I've noticed that Russians, who can slug down Russian (or even Polish) vodka as if it were water, become surprisingly relaxed and merry after just a few shots of good golden whiskey.  Anyway...

Anyone who's done any kind of business in Russia knows the following facts: culturally, politically, and economically, Russia is the world's largest Third-World Country.  Economically, it's been staggering one step ahead of disaster for a century, and often enough it stumbles;  then we see (as we often have!) Russia unable to even feed its own people, obliged to buy grain from its oft-proclaimed worst enemy.  28 years ago we saw it collapse completely, taking the USSR with it.  Glasnost happened because Russia needed to make friends in a hell of a hurry, simply to keep its people from starving to death.  For years afterward, the Russian government could not pay its army.  Soldiers and officers had to moonlight at any jobs they could get, and sold their uniforms, insignias, various weapons, even furniture, anywhere they could -- even on the budding Internet.  Half the country's economy ran on barter, and more than a quarter of it still does.  The factories that are still running work at 50% capacity, on average.  The farms work because the managers ignore political policy and let the working staff use as much of the communal land as they want for their own crops, often seeded from their own personal gardens (which have been the mainstay of Russian agriculture for more decades than any government official wants to admit).  Worse, actual production quality is wretched, and not just because so many working stiffs show up hungover on Monday;  they also commonly have vodka for lunch, and afternoon production drops off precipitously in quantity and quality.  This is true of all mass manufacturing, including military.  At any given time, at least 15% of Russia's weaponry, from nukes on down, doesn't work.  The non-military production is worse.  And that's just the economy.

The way the Russian government has kept up its facade as a super-power is by making a major industry out of constant propaganda, "showoffsky" posing, and generally lying like a rug.  Managers lie about production, generals lie about the condition of their troops, medical administrators about the state of public health, and so on.  They also sweeten the lies to their higher-ups with "gifts", as well as artful excuses -- quite often by blaming personal and political rivals.  Bribery with anything as obvious as cash is fiercely forbidden and punished, precisely because corruption is so common, so one has to be subtle about the payoffs.  Nonetheless, the truth about shortcomings of goods and labor eventually makes itself obvious.  This means that nobody can trust the official news, the government's statements, their bosses' claims, or really anybody except very close and proven personal acquaintances.  There is no "public trust".  Think about what that implies.

Among other things, this means that the government's other major industry is spying -- on everyone it can afford to -- to see what they're really doing.  This has led to a secondary industry of blackmail, which is successful often enough to encourage its continued use.  And of course it means that nobody can rely on any government services.  This has encouraged the growth of the Russian Mafia, which is often more reliable than the official system.  When the economy collapsed, the only organization capable of maintaining any reliable flow of goods or services was the Russian Mafia;  as a result, much of Russia's recovered economy -- such as it is -- is Mafia-run.

As a result, anyone with any experience doing business in Russia knows that to do any kind of business in Russia means dealing with the Russian government or the Russian Mafia, or both;  the only way to tell them apart is that the Russian Mafia tends to be more honest and less interested in spying.  But in any case, you cannot trust the Russians on anything;  only the simplest of transactions can be in any way relied on.  This is why not many companies want to do business in Russia. 

Random  peculiarities:  1) If you check into a better class of hotel in Russia, be assured that there are hidden cameras in the bedroom walls, and possibly microphones too, and be prepared to deal with them.  2) If you intend to construct anything, import the materials and machinery yourself, and arrange to have them guarded 24 hours a day, preferably by imported guards;  otherwise as much as half of them will be stolen.  Keep these in mind.

Now one resource which Russia had after the collapse was the immense untapped petroleum fields in Siberia, oil reserves greater than Saudi Arabia's, enough to rebuild its economy from the ground up.  The problem was that nobody in Russia had the resources, or the skills, to develop that industry.  In desperation, the Russian government quietly sent a delegation to talk to President Bush, an old oil-man himself, to negotiate a deal.  Bush happily complied, because a notice appeared in the American media -- with no fanfare -- that the Bush administration had put together a consortium of international industrialists to develop vaguely-described "Russian oil-fields".  The story wasn't followed up and soon faded from public awareness, but whoever wants to can track it down and get the details.

One of the companies involved in that consortium was owned by Donald Trump.

I think we can be sure that Trump was not naive about the peculiarities of dealing with Russia.  Note that when that story circulated about Trump entertaining Russian whores in his hotel room, and getting them to pee on the bed, he did not react to it as defensively as he usually does to real threats or challenges;  he simply laughed it off.  This implies that some Russian agent or other had previously tried to blackmail him with that story, and Trump knew perfectly well that the tale wasn't true -- and he could prove it.  Note this pattern.

What Trump primarily did for most of his life was to buy and sell and build large buildings.  What was he doing as part of that development consortium?  What else but building at least one large building?  He would have been aware of those interesting problems with large-scale construction in Russia -- indeed, he may have been the person who made that information common in the business community.  I think we can assume that Trump took care not to robbed, scammed, blackmailed, or otherwise ripped off by the Russians.  He might even have brought an electronics expert with him who shorted out those hidden cameras and microphones.  I would like to see a study on the building that Trump put up in Russia, and how much Trump got for it.  In any case, I don't think Trump gave the Russians anything except the building.  My guess would be that, when everything is finally revealed to the public, it will turn out that Trump royally screwed the Russians -- and he can prove it.

So why would he keep quiet about it, why be so evasive, why make it look as if he had something juicy to hide?  Well, what I'm seeing here is a fine case of "Briar-Patching": teasing his all-too-eager political detractors into stampeding themselves over a cliff by pretending he doesn't want them to do something.  This is a classic technique for manipulating excitable teenagers.  Then again, the Liberal/Democrat media have been acting younger than that, even unto inventing blatant hoaxes, as I personally attested on my Facebook page.  I'm waiting to see the result when Trump finally does reveal all his records, including his tax reports, and the over-eager media pundits are left with egg on their faces -- in public.

Now, who would think up such an elaborate red herring?  Well, maybe a certain smart Jewish husband of a smart businesswoman who just happens to be the daughter of Donald Trump -- a canny political observer, much beloved by the family, who has been keeping a low profile since well before the election.  I can see Trump laughing like hell when the idea was first presented to him.  It would be such a fitting revenge on the arrogant left-wing bigots of the media!                                                                                                                                                                                                                           --Leslie <;)))><                                                                                                             

8 comments:

Technomad said...

Konstantin Simis' USSR: The Corrupt Society came out some years before glasnost, and in it, Simis, a former Russian lawyer, talked at length about just how corrupt the whole Soviet society was. If you wanted anything, the best way to get it was na lyevo "on the left," or what we'd call "under the table." The book's available in several Arizona libraries not far from you according to Worldcat.org, and I bet you could get your hands on it.

A lot of "economic crime" in Soviet days was just what we'd call normal commerce. Simis talks about an old couple who were sent to the Gulag for exploitation...they'd bought flowers in one of the Caucasian republics and sold them at a profit in Moscow, or something like that (I haven't read the book in years). For this, they were branded as criminals.

I wasn't surprised at how corrupt things became once Yeltsin was in power; when you've criminalized your capitalists, your capitalists will be criminals. Kind of like how one side-effect of Prohibition in the US was to deeply entrench organized crime in the entertainment and hospitality industries.

Leslie Fish said...

Heheheheh. Yep, and to quote the old Leonard Cohen song, "Everybody knows" -- that is, everybody who's had experience doing business with Russia. It's impossible that Trump didn't know what he was getting into, or how to deal with it. It's also impossible that he didn't keep careful records, for his own uses. When he bragged that he knew more about Russia than various federal cops, that might not have been entirely his usual hyperbole. I'm waiting for Trump to spring the trap, open the books, come out smelling like a rose, and make the Dems look like idiots.

Spearcarrier said...

We actually own a microphone like you mention. Army issue from at least the past 8 years.

Anyway, your conclusion made me remember this video I saw on Youtube. It stated that Trump was the greatest troll in the world and this is how he won the election. It's a pretty sound theory. Looking at his internet activities, I even believe it. He trolls on twitter all of the time. And why wouldn't someone as people savvy as him not know how to trick the opposition into shooting themselves in the foot through witch hunts and wild goose chases?

Leslie Fish said...

Hi, Spear. Oh yes, the Internet has proven to be a far bigger factor in the last couple elections than Russia's info-dump on Wikileaks -- or, for that matter, China's financial support of Obama and Hillary in the last election (about which, for some reason, the media said almost nothing). Note how Ron Paul financed his last campaign almost entirely by crowd-funding. If the GOP had chosen to go with Paul, instead of purging 90% of the libertarians from the party and selling out to the reactionary-Conservatives, Trump would have stayed in his regular business and the GOP could have won without him. The Republicans have nobody to blame but themselves. Of course, the same could be said of the Democrats!

I'm wondering if Trump's whole "blundering" course since the inauguration wasn't carefully planned to get him shed of the Conservatives without losing their support while luring the Democrats into playing Br'er Fox with the Briar Patch.

Paradoctor said...

I doubt that Trump will ever smell like a rose for lots of people, and more so as time goes by. He's good at making enemies; and also at breaking promises. Bragging about swindling Russian mobsters might excite his base, but others might see that as an admission that he too is a mobster. Also he'd do that only after the Russians are no use to him.

Leslie Fish said...

Hi, Nat. Hmmm, in that case, it could be that Trump's keeping quiet about his real Russian dealings until he can get a solid commitment from Putin (easier said than done!) to join the Allied side against the Jihadists -- and pound ISIS into the ground. Of course, this will depend on Russia having enough of a paid army to actually fight.

Paradoctor said...

But now he's bombed both Assad and ISIS. The Farce is strong with this one.

Leslie Fish said...

Maybe that's his way of saying "A plague on both your houses".